The Packer Pundit

Clock ticks on Williams decision
By Greg A. Bedard
Monday, Feb 18 2008, 05:26 PM
Green Bay - The deadline for any NFL team to use their franchise and/or transition tag on a pending unrestricted free agent is Thursday. That, in effect, will decide whether defensive tackle Corey Williams will remain with the Green Bay Packers, at least for one more season. If the Packers don't tag Williams, he will get paid - a lot - on the free-agent market, especially with the Tennessee Titans set to tag Albert Haynesworth, the top tackle thought to be available. I've long held that since the Packers didn't sign Williams to a contract extension, they should pat him on the back and let him go. But something just doesn't sit right about this situation. Maybe the Packers shouldn't just let Williams walk away. Maybe they won't.

It's one thing for Packers general manager Ted Thompson to let an aging player go if he thinks the market is overpriced for him. But Williams is 27, will be entering just his fifth season, and has shown the ability to stay healthy. Obviously there's going to be a crazy market for Williams, if he gets to free agency. But the key words there are "market" and "if." If people want Williams' services, and he seems to be an ascending player (maybe a little overrated, but still has shown improvement) why would the Packers just let a player like that go without getting anything in return?

I'm attaching a chart I threw together with the top 10 defensive tackle salaries, which were used to calculate the franchise (top 5 average) and transition (top 10) numbers. To get some sort of perspective on how the players have performed (or not performed) to their contracts, I combined total tackles (one point each) and sacks (two points each) and divided that total by the number of games played. Then I took that number and divided that by their 2007 salary. In Williams' case, I took the salary he would be paid if the Packers signed him to the franchise number. Yes, it's a rudimentary formula, I know. But I think you get the point.

Williams doesn't have great value compared to the others in the chart. But, of course, he wasn't a full-time starter for much of the season. Depending on how you (or the Packers look at it), that could have either hindered or helped Williams' numbers. But these numbers show he belongs in the same conversation with some of those top-flight players. If the Packers have a guy in Williams that has top 10 value, how does Thompson just let Williams walk away and get nothing in return? That’s what perplexes me about this because if anything, Thompson has is very disciplined when it comes to gauging the market and getting good value. Thompson has to know there are about a half dozen teams that would love to have Williams. If the Packers have enough depth and too much money tied into the position already (they do), then why not trade Williams? The Packers could do that by franchising Williams and then trading him for less than the two first-round picks it would cost another team if it signed Williams with the franchise tag. If the Packers can’t find a trade partner, then the worst thing that happens is they keep him for one more season – when the Packers’ attitude will be ‘Super Bowl or Bust’ – and then bid him adieu. Maybe I’m completely off about this, I don’t know. But something just tells me that Thompson would be about the last person to just let a young player go when there’s a willing market ready for him.

Let’s see what happens. Thursday is the day. [Link]