The Packer Pundit

Poor batting average

Only nine of the 27 players Sherman drafted remain on the Packers' roster: wide receiver Robert Ferguson (second round, 2001); tight end David Martin (sixth round, 2001); running back Najeh Davenport (fourth round, 2002); defensive end Aaron Kampman (fifth round, 2002); linebacker Nick Barnett (first round, 2003); defensive end Kenny Peterson (third round, 2003); cornerback Ahmad Carroll (first round, 2004); defensive tackle Corey Williams (sixth round, 2004); and center Scott Wells (seventh round, 2004).

While Sherman batted .500 on his first-round picks - Javon Walker (2002) and Barnett were solid choices, while Reynolds was a bust and Carroll has been a disappointment - it was his inability to unearth talent in the middle-to-late rounds that hurt the Packers the most in the long run.

Asked Tuesday how vital it is to draft well in the middle rounds, Thompson said, "It's extremely important. The draft is not an exact science. You'll have guys that work out very well, beyond your expectations. You'll have guys that don't do quite as well as you think they would have done. But I think that's where you're talking about the core players of your team."

Solid mid-round drafting can make up for early-round mistakes, too. Wolf's first-round drafting was spotty at best, but he had a remarkable knack in the later rounds. Nowhere is that more evident than in the third round, which Wolf used to build the team into a Super Bowl contender after he took over as GM in 1991.

Wolf hit the jackpot in the third round in 1995 with wide receiver Antonio Freeman, fullback William Henderson and linebacker Brian Williams, while other Wolf third-rounders included wide receiver Robert Brooks (1992); right tackle Earl Dotson (1993); center Mike Flanagan (1996); cornerback Tyrone Williams (1996); and cornerback Mike McKenzie (1999).

Among Wolf's second-day picks that hit it big were running back Edgar Bennett (fourth round) and tight end Mark Chmura (sixth) in 1992; quarterback Mark Brunell (fifth) and cornerback Doug Evans (sixth) in 1993; running back Dorsey Levens (fifth) in 1994; guard Adam Timmerman (seventh) in 1995; guard Marco Rivera (sixth) in 1996; quarterback Matt Hasselbeck (sixth) in 1998; wide receiver Donald Driver (seventh) in 1999; and defensive end Kabeer Gbaja-Biamila (fifth) and tackle Mark Tauscher (seventh) in 2000.

Eleven of those 19 players went to the Pro Bowl, either with the Packers or another team. Even Wolf admitted that it's unrealistic to expect someone to hit on a round like he did in 1995, but such picks are the lifeblood of a team's roster.

"That's your aim every year. I doubt seriously, though, we'd ever be able to duplicate (1995)," said Wolf, now retired and living in Annapolis, Md. "There was a lot of luck involved there, the way that thing fell. To realistically think you could do something like that, I don't think so. But at the end of the third round, you're still in your top 100 players."

Third-round blues

Sherman, meanwhile, had a horrible record in the third round. His third-round picks were safety Bhawoh Jue and linebacker Torrance Marshall in 2001, safety Marques Anderson in '02, Peterson in '03, and Thomas, Washington and Sander in '04.

Three things Sherman did wrong, according to those familiar with the Packers' draft process, were listening to his coaches' opinions more than his scouts' evaluations; "jump the board" during the middle rounds, taking a player he was enamored with even if that player wasn't the highest-rated prospect available at the time; and trading up to get specific players he'd targeted.

The selection of Sander was one of the many instances of that approach backfiring, as Sherman traded fourth- and fifth-round picks to move up 15 spots to take him.

"If you believe in what you do to prepare yourself for the draft, then that board should tell you whom to pick when your time comes up," Wolf said. "But invariably, when you jump it and don't do what the board tells you to do - it sounds like there's voodoo in there or something - but that's when you get in trouble."

In contrast to Sherman, who traded away 20 selections in three years and moved up seven times in his final two drafts to take specific players, Thompson never traded up in his five drafts in Seattle and hasn't traded up since arriving in Green Bay. Instead, Thompson has traded down seven times in his two Packers drafts, turning seven picks into 11 in 2005 and seven (plus Walker) into 12 picks this year.

Of those 23 players, only two - second-round pick Terrence Murphy (career-ending neck injury) and sixth-round pick Craig Bragg - are no longer with the team. Some figure to be released during next Tuesday's roster reduction to 75 players or the Sept. 2 cut to 53, of course.

"We've always believed that every single pick is very important. Now, you can't kid yourself. (If) it doesn't work out, it doesn't work out," Thompson said. "But every pick is important, and every time, if you're in the fifth or sixth round and you're getting ready to pick, you're thinking about what role this guy's going to play on your team. And when somebody does beyond that or less than that, then you just chalk it up to experience."