Questions???
WHAT COULD GO WRONG?by texaspackerpacker
Packer Pundit Guest Blogger
I've been on record in other forums for a long time stating that the Packers are literally set up for success this season. I cited such things as the great draft position, the abundance of cap room for free agent spending, and the easy schedule that derives from finishing last in the division. The main factor, of course, was the return of players who went down in the injury ruined debacle last season. Well, the draft went OK--there were things I wish had been done differently to maximize the benefit. Free agency also was just OK--I really wouldn't have wanted Thompson to break the bank for most of the big names out there. Most of the injured came back, although Murphy didn't and Walker is gone--for better or worse. So are we still set up for success? Coming off a 4-12 season, ordinarily, a turnaround of the record, 12-4, give or take a win or two would be unlikely. But with so many factors falling into place, the Packers really could pull it off. What could go wrong and prevent that--other than the supreme bad luck of a once in a half century level of injuries like last year? In other words, what key things have to happen to grease the wheels for success? At the top of the list, for sure is Brett Favre. If he fails like last year, everything else is pretty much academic. On the other hand, if he returns for the form of '04 and before, the sky is the limit.
-- Will Woodson not have too much of a wet blanket effect on the sharp pass defense from last season? I hated to see Carrol's job just handed to Woodson. Now Harris is a slight question mark too. Can the Offensive Line make a quick transition to the new zone blocking scheme, not to mention a rebuilt three interior positions? Will we either get a significant pass rush from people who haven't proven they can provide it--Montgomery, Kampman, and KGB as a possible third down specialist? Or will the defense do the job without a super pass rush?
-- Will the rebuilt corps of receivers, along with Donald Driver give Favre enough open targets, and will Gado and the other runners take enough pressure off the passing game?
-- And will we have an adequate kicking game--upgraded punting and kickoffs and at least as good place kicking as last year?
That's a lot of questionmarks--a whole lot of things that could go wrong. Why, however, is there still reason for a lot of optimism? Well, virtually every one of those potential problems has a very high percentage chance for turning out allright. Starting at the bottom of the list: Competition is the key to upgrading the kicking, that plus the fact that there's no place to go but up for the punting game and kickoffs. If this guy, Ryan, from Canada is anywhere near as impressive as his stats--and not a liability due to slow delivery time, then case closed and good bye B.J. Sander. However, I wouldn't write off Sander just yet either. He did too well in college and starting out last fall to really be as bad as he seemed late in the year. Cundiff has been a well above average kicker at times, but he has had bad streaks for Dallas. Rayner could really boom his kickoffs at Indy, but doesn't have much experience on field goals. Keeping both isn't out of the question. Ryan, the punter, is apparently also a fairly decent place kicker, and topping it all off, rookie quarterback Ingle Martin really put on a show in mini-camp both on punts and kicks. Out of all that, we ought to be able to get above average NFL performance as well as decent emergency backups in all three areas. At running back, I see no reason why Samkon Gado and Najeh Davenport can't pick up right where they left off before going down with injuries last season. There would seem to be a strong hope of that. Ahman Green is a much lower percentage to return to form, but there is good reason to hope he will at least be better than Fisher was as a third down back. While nothing is ever sure, high quality of play from these guys seems very likely. That may be less sure for the receivers, but here again, quantity of talent is the key. After Driver, take your pick. Gardner had one great season, is not damaged physically, is still young, and has never had somebody like Favre throwing to him. Jennings looks like the real deal. Boerigter is something Favre has never had, a potentially Ed McCaffrey-like big wideout. And the much-maligned Robert Ferguson is finally back healthy and knows it's make or break for him. Who says we can't put together decent combinations for Brett to throw to. Vernon Davis would have looked really good at tight end, but it didn't happen, so we go with what we've got. Bubba is at least a good blocker, and Lee or with extreme luck, Martin could be OK. I honestly don't see the Packers getting an overpowering pass rush. On the other hand, we should get decent overall performance in the defensive line, and that should be enough for the overall defense to be strong with the huge upgrade at linebacker. The key for the offensive line is settling on a combination and getting them used to playing together. I think Scott Wells will be a great upgrade from Flannagan. Guard is a major question, but there are literally five or six talented young players, so a decent combination should be a high percentage thing. Pass defense? The Harris situation almost certainly won't amount to anything. I think there is a strong chance that Woodson won't play as well as Carrol did for the last 12 or so games last year, but that's no problem if the coaching staff doesn't cling to Woodson because of all the money he's getting. So no big deal.And last but anything but least, Brett Favre returning to form versus Brett Favre flopping like last year? That sounds like somewhere between 75/25 and 90/10 on the good side.
So is it time to buy Super Bowl tickets?
Not quite, but every one of those question marks has a very strong chance of coming through for the good. And if those percentages do come through, well, don't rule out that Super Bowl.
Copyright 2006 © texaspackerbacker and published on The Packer Pundit by permission. Be sure to catch the texaspackerbacker in the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel's Packer Forum section and in the Archive section of the Packer Pundit.
Published by PackerPundit On Friday, June 02, 2006 at 4:13 PM.
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